Hey crew, here’s to another week of cutting through the noise and focusing on what actually moves financial minds forward.

Just the stuff affecting wallets, business & the economy:

📈 Progress or Growing Pains? Make It Make Sense

🏀 Nike x Michael Jordan Teach Us Markets

Here’s to the 132nd weekly edition

Let’s dive in.

Walk through Addis and you can see an economy in motion.

Construction on every corner, traders are importing, consumer markets are expanding and exporters are bringing in more foreign currency.

The numbers back up that momentum.

According to Cepheus Growth Capital's September 2026 review, Ethiopia's economy grew by an estimated 10.2% in FY2025/26, its strongest performance in a decade. Exports reached a record $11.2 billion, while the birr depreciated at a much slower pace than during the previous years.

But there is another side to the story.

Winter is coming! Inflation is persistently high which means the economy is expanding, but operating a business is not necessarily getting easier.

Here are three developments worth paying attention to:

Real GDP growth reached 10.2%, led by industry at 13.2%, followed by services at 9.3% and agriculture at 7.9%.

To put that into perspective, industry is growing faster than the rest of the economy, creating opportunities in manufacturing, construction and related services. Agriculture's 7.9% growth is also significant given its importance to employment and food supply.

However, growth does not automatically mean cheaper goods or higher disposable incomes.

Headline inflation (food and non-food items) ended June 2026 at 13.9%, having briefly fallen to 9.4% in March before rising again. Latest September figure is even higher at 14.9%.

Consider some everyday examples from the Cepheus' Addis Ababa price survey:

For businesses, this means higher procurement costs and pressure on margins. For households, salary increases may struggle to keep pace with living costs.

Following the July 2024 exchange-rate reform, the birr experienced a major correction. During FY2025/26, however, the pace of depreciation slowed considerably, with the official USD exchange rate increasing by approximately 17% between June 2025 and June 2026.

The gap between official and parallel market rates also narrowed to around 14% by June 2026, suggesting improved foreign exchange market functioning.

Businesses are importing machinery to expand capacity, but they also remain dependent on foreign suppliers for intermediate inputs, fuel and everyday products.

Meanwhile, exports increased 34% to $11.2 billion. However, gold and coffee accounted for a substantial share of the improvement. Gold exports alone increased 64% to $5.7 billion, while coffee exports rose 18% to $3.1 billion.

The challenge is sustaining these foreign currency earnings while building a broader export base.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) increased 11% to $4.4 billion. However, the number of investment licenses barely changed, increasing from 518 to 520.

Manufacturing accounted for 278 licenses, or approximately 53% of the total. Wholesale and retail trade followed with 156, or 30%.

The detailed investment figures are particularly interesting. Among the largest investment activities were plastic manufacturing, electrical products, textile manufacturing and real estate development.

Yet import related activities also featured prominently.

There is a clear opportunity here: manufacturing businesses that can replace imported products, supply industrial inputs or serve export markets could benefit from the changing economic environment.

Policy incentives are also evolving.

Council of Ministers Regulation 586/2026 introduced new tax and customs incentives, including reduced income tax rates for selected sectors, preferential imports of capital goods and a capital expenditure allowance. Designated startups can qualify for a 5% income tax rate for ten years, subject to eligibility requirements.

The opportunity is to invest in businesses that produce, substitute imports, create jobs and generate foreign currency.

Don't invest simply because a sector is growing. Look for businesses with pricing power, reliable demand and the ability to generate cash.

If your business imports machinery, raw materials or finished products, build exchange-rate scenarios into your budgets. Review inventory cycles and pricing regularly. Where possible, develop local alternatives and diversify suppliers.

The next wave of opportunities will favor people who understand more than their immediate job descriptions. Financial analysis, data, supply-chain management, manufacturing operations and export development skills will become increasingly valuable as businesses adapt to a more competitive economy.

Ethiopia's FY2025/26 performance gives reasons for optimism. Growth is strong, exports are rising and foreign exchange market conditions have improved.

But the next test is whether this momentum translates into productive investment, stronger domestic supply chains and sustainable improvements in living standards.

ነገረ ፍሬው: don't just follow where the economy is growing. Position yourself where the economy is going.

1985 is 39 years old.

Yes, 1985 is almost a middle aged man, and let’s face it, it has seen a lot.

But the year has significance for many.

One of them being the release of an iconic sports shoe by the name of Air Jordan One…yes, that Michael Jordan, the basketball GOAT 🐐, the best, the ultimate athlete…

MJ was a relative unknown, courted from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), he had speed, explosiveness, flair but no one expected him to be an established superstar in the NBA.

No one, but Nike.

They recruited him with the promise of making him a megastar.

And boy did that promise come to fruition.

The Air Jordan One was and still is an iconic shoe. MJ was the face, Nike was the soul (get it, shoe ‘sole’ 😉)

Retail price? $65.

A bit much for that period but the demand was overwhelming.

If you had one, the aura was real. If you didn’t, you dreamt of having one…“አንድ ቀን ብቻ ”

Now, let’s get to the lesson here…

Some people bought knowing this prestige, banking that they would find people willing to get their hands on a prized possession.

Fast forward to 2026 and a pristine condition Air Jordan One from 1985 can be found on the secondary market for up to $25,000 to $30,000 🤯

See how we said secondary. 

Well, every secondary has a primary…it’s only logical, right?

What you paid to Nike was the primary, that’s the company looking to get cash from their offerings (their prestigious shoe). Sort of like how SpaceX went public and sold its shares when it IPO’d, that’s Initial Public Offering.

The secondary market is what belongs to the investors, those that speculate and haggle prices with others.

Nike gets paid once (primary), investors flip it over and over again (secondary).

The Air Jordan One is the perfect analogy for this.

$25k is speculation, not the cost + labor + transportation + margin price of the shoe.

The price is what the secondary market says it is worth.

Look at the listed stocks BOAX, AWAB, TELE and more on the Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX): their prices are set through speculation on the secondary market.

The companies behind those raise their ‘initial’ capital when their CEO rang the floor bell on the trading floor.

Price surges on the first day, it’s injected into the seller’s (the company’s) account getting listed when buyers line up to get a piece of the cake.

Then investors trade amongst themselves.

If you’re a curious investor, playing around with the Neway app, you might have noticed that T-Bills, debt the government sells you to fund its short-term deficits, are available for trade on the ESX.

Meaning, your T-Bill, which is guaranteed to pay you interest payment in 3, 6 or 12 months can be traded on a market for a potential profit.

So you decide, get the interest yield (primary market) or sell it to another investor (secondary market)?

The choice is yours…