☕ Beyond the Brew

Welcome to the 75th edition of ፍራንክ Digest!

Your weekly brief on all things Finance and Investing. Quick, enjoyable reads for busy professionals in 5 minutes or less.

Here’s what’s coming your way:

• 🌱 Grind for Growth: What Ethiopia’s Coffee Means for You

• 💫 The Latest Hype Over Ethiopian Insurance Stocks

• 🖼️ The Big Picture

Thanks for reading!

Coffee Harvest Is Upon Us

Personal Finance

We’re pulling the curtains open on Ethiopia’s coffee scene as we approach the beginning of the harvest season in October and how it might matter for personal finance.

What Recent Data Tells Us

1. Ethiopia’s record harvest on the horizon
   The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Ethiopia will hit 694,000 tons of coffee in the 2025/26 season. Up 9% from 637,800 tons in the previous cycle.
   Key drivers: rejuvenated and newly planted farms; high-yield varieties; stumping (deep pruning to renew old coffee trees); and expansion of harvest area by 30,000 hectares (about +4%).

2. Exports are surging lately
   In the previous coffee harvest year, Ethiopia’s exports shot up 63.5%, reaching a record of 468,000 tons for Ethiopia earning $2.65 billion.

   Key drivers: The surge followed the adoption of a market-based foreign exchange rate which increased Ethiopia’s export competitiveness.

3. Global price volatility is high
   Prices of coffee globally have been swinging wildly. Weather issues (Brazil, Vietnam etc.), US tariffs and supply concerns have all pushed prices up.

4. Coffee is a big slice of Ethiopia’s export cake
   The export basket is still very concentrated, with primary agricultural products dominating. Coffee alone takes around 25‑35% of export value. So any shifts (good or bad) in the coffee market are going to ripple through Ethiopia’s wider economy.

What This Means For YOU

If you’re smart with money, when you see trends like these, there are opportunities and risks. Plan and invest given what’s going on instead of standing on the sidelines:

1. If you’re already in the coffee business, consider value‑added opportunities
   Ethiopia is boosting production a lot. “Just” green bean export is one thing; but consider dealing in specialty coffee, roasting, branding, traceability which sell at much higher margins. If you can be involved in value added or on the quality end, you may capture more value.

2. When coffee does well, it’s not just the farmers and exporters who win.

The ripple effects of a strong coffee harvest and high global prices can benefit many parts of the Ethiopian economy, directly and indirectly. Let’s look at some options:

💰 Rising Rural Incomes = Local Spending Boom

When coffee farmers and cooperatives earn more, they spend more and not just on farm inputs. They’ll buy:

• Consumer goods – processed foods, electronics and clothing

• Construction services – building/renovating homes and upgrading storage units

• Health & education – private schools, medical visits and insurance seem all of a sudden affordable

Businesses in retail, construction, education and healthcare should prepare for a demand surge, especially in rural coffee growing regions like Sidama, Jimma and Guji.

🚜 Increased Demand for Agricultural Inputs & Services

More coffee revenue means:

• Bigger budgets for natural fertilizers, irrigation equipment, and processing machinery (like pulpers, hullers and dryers).

• More openness to agri-consulting services (crop diversification, certification help, traceability tech, etc.)

• Boom in logistics, especially for exporters: think warehousing, packaging and transport services.

If you become a supplier or service provider, this is a golden time to pitch to coffee cooperatives and medium-to-large farms.